After 5,000 NCAA Tournament simulations, Purdue had the fourth-best chance to win the national title.
The Boilermakers, who earned the No. 2 seed in the East Region, have a 9.36 percent chance to cut down the nets in San Antonio, according to Sports Reference’s NCAA Tournament Forecast.
Virginia is the favorite, with a 24.62 percent chance to win the national title, while Villanova (12.32 percent) and Duke (10.96 percent) round out the top 3. Michigan State, meanwhile, comes in right behind Purdue. The Spartans have a 7.72 percent chance to hoist the NCAA Tournament trophy.
Purdue (28-6, 15-3 Big Ten) begins its March Madness run against No. 15 seed Cal State Fullerton on Friday at 12:40 p.m. ET. Win that, and the Boilermakers will play the winner of No. 7 seed Arkansas and No. 10 seed Butler on Sunday. The NCAA Tournament forecast gave the Boilermakers a 70.96 percent chance to win those first two games and advance to the Sweet 16.
From there, coach Matt Painter’s team likely will play No. 3 seed Texas Tech, one of the top teams in the Big 12 this season. Still, 47.06 of the simulations projected Purdue to win that game and make the Elite 8.
As for the Final Four, the forecast gave the Boilermakers a 27.68 percent chance to advance that far. That’s also the fourth-best percentage among participating programs.
The first round of the NCAA Tournament begins Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET.