With Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State all likely to be in the CFP’s top 10 when the rankings are announced Tuesday, the Big Ten appears well-positioned to have at least one and possibly two teams reach the playoff.
But how likely are each of those schools to get there? What about to win it all? Here’s how they stack up according to odds calculated by FiveThirtyEight.
Ohio State – 54 percent to reach CFP, 16 percent to win national title
Michigan – 34 percent to reached CFP, 11 percent to win national title
Wisconsin – 28 percent to reach CFP, 3 percent to win national title
Penn State – 9 percent to reach CFP, <1 percent to win national title
These odds don’t reflect the report that Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight is out for the regular season with a broken collarbone, so you can mentally adjust the odds accordingly. That news is obviously bad for the Wolverines but is great for the Ohio State, which plays Michigan on Nov. 26, and Penn State, which can make the Big Ten title game only if Michigan loses again before the end of the season.
Per FiveThirtyEight, Alabama leads all teams with a 91 percent chance to make the playoff and a 38 percent chance to win the national title.