What did this Saturday’s results do to the Big Ten Conference race? Well, it looks like Michigan is still the big-time favorite to win the conference. It also has the league’s best odds to win out.
Here are FPI’s chances for each team to win the conference:
- Michigan: 65 percent (slightly up from 64.1 last week)
- Ohio State: 17.3 (down from 19.8)
- Wisconsin: 11.7 (up from 8.6)
- Nebraska: 3 (down from 5.7)
- Penn State: 1.6
- Northwestern: 1.0
- Minnesota: 0.3
- Iowa: 0.1
Here are FPI’s win-out chances:
- Michigan: 40.9 percent (no change)
- Penn State: 36.4 (up from 24.7)
- Ohio State: 26.2 (up from 25.3)
- Wisconsin: 10.6 (up from 7.9)
- Northwestern: 4.9 (up from 0.1)
- Iowa: 0.9
- Michigan State: 0.7
- Nebraska: 0.5
- Indiana: 0.3
- Minnesota: 0.1
- Illinois: 0.1
- Purdue: 0.1
Some takeaways from the numbers:
- Michigan and Ohio State both won on Saturday. Neither result changed much when looking ahead. FPI has Michigan as the Big Ten’s best team and a 55.9-percent favorite at Ohio State.
- Penn State didn’t play a tough Purdue team, but the Nittany Lions have greatly improved their odds to win the rest of their games. Why? Penn State now has one fewer game to play and also are seen as a stronger team. Penn State is a 66.3-percent favorite vs. Iowa this Saturday, the lowest percent for the Nittany Lions the rest of the way. Penn State was at 60.6 percent vs. Iowa last Sunday.
- Nebraska dropped from No. 26 to No. 28 from a week ago. The Huskers have only a 13.7-percent chance at Ohio State, according to FPI. After that, Nebraska is favored the rest of the way, though only barely at Iowa (50.4 percent). For an idea of how little the numbers like Nebraska, 3-5 Ole Miss is ranked No. 14.
- Alabama is still No. 1 coming off a bye. The Tide are the top-ranked team in the FPI at 30.6. Michigan is second at 28.7, 3.5 ahead of No. 3 Louisville.
- Michigan and Penn State are two of FPI’s 13 teams with the best odds to win the rest of their games. Louisville leads the nation at 69.1 percent.