Michigan and Ohio State are still the two strongest teams in the Big Ten conference. But perhaps no team has been on a surge like Penn State.
In fact, the Nittany Lions have the conference’s best chances of winning out, as Penn State has only Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland to end the regular season.
Here are the FPI’s chances for each team to win the conference:
- Michigan: 64.9
- Ohio State: 17.1
- Wisconsin: 15.7
- Penn State: 1.3
- Nebraska: 0.7
- Minnesota: 0.3
Here are the FPI’s win-out chances:
- Penn State: 62.7 percent
- Michigan: 40.3
- Ohio State: 37.7
- Northwestern: 30.1
- Nebraska: 18.0
- Wisconsin: 13.0
- Iowa: 3.5
- Maryland: 1.0
- Michigan State: 0.8
- Illinois: 0.4
- Indiana: 0.3
- Minnesota: 0.2
- Rutgers: 0.2
- Purdue: 0.1
Here’s what these numbers tell us:
- Even though Ohio State destroyed top-10 Nebraska on Saturday by 59 points, Michigan is still considered a favorite at Ohio State. The Wolverines are No. 2 in the FPI at 30.2 (behind Alabama) and have a 53.1-percent chance to win at Ohio State on Nov. 26.
- Penn State should go 10-2. Penn State is only three wins away from getting there now that the Nittany Lions routed Iowa. Penn State has a 62.7 percent chance to win out because the Nittany Lions are huge favorites against Indiana (79.7), Rutgers (92.6) and Michigan State (86.6). Remember, Penn State was only 2-2 after losing to Michigan.
- Wisconsin is carrying the Big Ten West’s hopes of winning the conference. The East has an 83.3-percent chance to win the Big Ten title, as Michigan and Ohio State gobble up most of the odds. Of the West’s 16.7 percentage points, the Badgers have 15.7. In other words, Wisconsin is now the big favorite to win the division after Nebraska lost big at Ohio State.
- Michigan and Ohio State are in the Top 5 of the FPI ratings. Ohio State is No. 4 at 26.6 — ahead of undefeated Clemson and Washington.
- Penn State’s win-out odds of 62.7 percent rank sixth nationally. BYU has the best odds at 85.3 percent, with Louisville (78.6), Clemson (69.1), Western Michigan (66.6) and Alabama (66.3) next.