As Michigan looked dominant again vs. Illinois, Ohio State suffered its first lost of the season at Penn State this past Saturday.
Those two results led to huge changes in ESPN’s Football Power Index percentages for the rest of the season. Michigan is now a much bigger favorite to win the Big Ten title, increasing almost 20 percentage points from 46.5 to 64.1. Ohio State dropped nearly 20 percentage points to 19.8.
As for the win-out chances, Michigan increased 6 percentage points to 40.9. But Penn State was the big winner. A week ago, the FPI gave the Nittany Lions a 3.3 percent-chance to win the rest of their games — now it’s up to 24.7.
Here are FPI’s chances for each team to win the Big Ten:
- Michigan: 64.1 percent (up from 46.5 a week ago)
- Ohio State: 19.8 (down from 39.4 last week)
- Wisconsin: 8.6
- Nebraska: 5.7
- Penn State: 1.0
- Northwestern: 0.6
- Iowa: 0.2
FPI’s win-out chances for Big Ten teams:
- Michigan: 40.9 percent (up from 34.9 last week)
- Ohio State: 25.3
- Penn State: 24.7 (up from 3.3 last week)
- Wisconsin: 7.9
- Iowa: 0.6
- Indiana: 0.2
- Northwestern: 0.1
- Nebraska: 0.1
- Rutgers: 0.1
- Illinois: 0.1
Here’s what we can learn from these numbers:
- Michigan still has to play Ohio State, but the Wolverines are thought to be the clear favorite, even though the Wolverines play at Columbus, Ohio. FPI has Michigan a 56.4 percent favorite vs. Ohio State.
- Penn State will be favored in each game. Of the five remaining games, Iowa (at 60.6 percent) is the lowest win percentage remaining for the Nittany Lions. There’s still almost a 75-percent chance Penn State loses somewhere, but the Nittany Lions have the edge in every game.
- FPI still isn’t sold on Nebraska. The Huskers rank No. 26 in the nation at 12.2 in the FPI. Two-loss Penn State is No. 32 at 10.6 and three-loss Iowa is even No. 38 at 9.1. But with No. 15 FPI Wisconsin next, the Huskers will boost their numbers. Nebraska has only a 30.7-percent chance to win at Wisconsin and 12.5-percent chance to win at Ohio State.
- Alabama is No. 1 in the FPI at 30.3 — Michigan is second at 29.8. The Crimson Tide have a slightly worse chance to win out than Michigan: 40.6 vs. 40.9.
- These are just numbers. Last week, Ohio State was at 84.4 percent to beat Penn State. So upsets can and will happen.